NFL Wins Pool Update
Last updated October 10, 2023
Standings
| Rank | Team | Wins | Remaining Games | Win % | Win % Rank | Projected Wins (FPI) | Projected Rank (FPI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Thorne | 12 | 37 | 85.7% | 1 | 33.6 | 1 |
| 2 | Gavin Gray | 10 | 36 | 66.7% | 2 | 27.6 | 3 |
| 3 | Andrew Moeller | 8 | 36 | 53.3% | 4 | 26.8 | 5 |
| 3 | Nick Boucher | 8 | 37 | 57.1% | 3 | 27.6 | 3 |
| 5 | Andrew Batchelor | 7 | 36 | 46.7% | 5 | 27.7 | 2 |
| 5 | Matt Hogel | 7 | 36 | 46.7% | 5 | 25.2 | 6 |
| 7 | Dan Ellenberger | 6 | 36 | 40.0% | 8 | 23.4 | 8 |
| 7 | Luke Phelan | 6 | 36 | 40.0% | 8 | 22.5 | 9 |
| 7 | Karl Loiseau | 6 | 38 | 46.2% | 7 | 23.9 | 7 |
| 10 | Steve Creaser | 5 | 36 | 33.3% | 10 | 20.3 | 10 |
- Projected wins taken from ESPN FPI projections.
Expanded Standings
| Team | Wins |
Projected Wins |
Next Opponent |
Win Probability in Next Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Thorne | ||||
| San Francisco 49ers | 5 | 13.6 | CLE | 0.69 |
| Detroit Lions | 4 | 11.0 | TB | 0.61 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3 | 9.0 | DET | 0.39 |
| Gavin Gray | ||||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 5 | 11.8 | NYJ | 0.73 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 3 | 9.1 | WAS | 0.59 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 2 | 6.7 | NE | 0.61 |
| Andrew Moeller | ||||
| Buffalo Bills | 3 | 11.8 | NYG | 0.88 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 3 | 8.8 | NA | |
| Washington Commanders | 2 | 6.2 | ATL | 0.41 |
| Nick Boucher | ||||
| Baltimore Ravens | 3 | 10.2 | TEN | 0.66 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 3 | 8.6 | JAX | 0.34 |
| Cleveland Browns | 2 | 8.8 | SF | 0.31 |
| Andrew Batchelor | ||||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 4 | 12.3 | DEN | 0.82 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 2 | 8.2 | ARI | 0.72 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 1 | 7.2 | CHI | 0.59 |
| Matt Hogel | ||||
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 3 | 9.7 | IND | 0.66 |
| New Orleans Saints | 3 | 9.5 | HOU | 0.55 |
| Chicago Bears | 1 | 6.0 | MIN | 0.41 |
| Dan Ellenberger | ||||
| Miami Dolphins | 4 | 12.3 | CAR | 0.87 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 2 | 7.2 | SEA | 0.61 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0 | 3.9 | MIA | 0.13 |
| Karl Loiseau | ||||
| Seattle Seahawks | 3 | 9.7 | CIN | 0.39 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 2 | 9.5 | DAL | 0.43 |
| Denver Broncos | 1 | 4.7 | KC | 0.18 |
| Luke Phelan | ||||
| Dallas Cowboys | 3 | 10.2 | LAC | 0.57 |
| Green Bay Packers | 2 | 7.6 | NA | |
| New York Giants | 1 | 4.7 | BUF | 0.12 |
| Steve Creaser | ||||
| New York Jets | 2 | 7.4 | PHI | 0.27 |
| Tennessee Titans | 2 | 7.5 | BAL | 0.34 |
| New England Patriots | 1 | 5.4 | LV | 0.39 |
- Win probability calculated from covers.com odds
Weekly Head-to-Heads
Leverage measured by:
* Circles to the top right are games between people closest to first
place
* Bigger circles indicate games that are more likely to be closely
contested
Draft Analysis
| Team | Wins |
Draft Spot |
Expected Wins |
Performance vs. Expectation |
Better Choices |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Thorne | |||||
| San Francisco 49ers | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Detroit Lions | 4 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3 | 30 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Gavin Gray | |||||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 3 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 2 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Andrew Moeller | |||||
| Buffalo Bills | 3 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 2 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 3 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Washington Commanders | 2 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Nick Boucher | |||||
| Baltimore Ravens | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Cleveland Browns | 2 | 11 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 3 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Andrew Batchelor | |||||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 1 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 1 | 16 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 2 | 29 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Matt Hogel | |||||
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 3 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| New Orleans Saints | 3 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Chicago Bears | 1 | 23 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| Dan Ellenberger | |||||
| Cincinnati Bengals | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| Miami Dolphins | 4 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0 | 26 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| Luke Phelan | |||||
| Dallas Cowboys | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| New York Giants | 1 | 19 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| Green Bay Packers | 2 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Karl Loiseau | |||||
| Los Angeles Chargers | 2 | 8 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 3 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Denver Broncos | 1 | 21 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| Steve Creaser | |||||
| New York Jets | 2 | 10 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| Tennessee Titans | 2 | 12 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| New England Patriots | 1 | 24 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
Draft Results
